Three of every four Virginians surveyed say that if U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine is elected vice president, Gov. Terry McAuliffe should not appoint himself to fill the vacant Senate seat that would result, according to a new University of Mary Washington poll.
Among the 1,006 adult Virginians surveyed, only 13 percent said Virginia’s Democratic governor should appoint himself, with 78 percent saying that he should appoint someone else. Likely voters were highly critical as well of a gubernatorial self-appointment, with 83 percent saying McAuliffe should name someone else and 10 percent saying the governor should appoint himself, according to the survey conducted for UMW by Princeton Survey Research Associates Sept. 6-12.
But 40 percent of those who believed the governor should not appoint himself did not know who should be the next senator if Kaine, also a Democrat, becomes vice president.
When those who did not favor a self-appointment were asked who should be appointed to a Senate vacancy, 15 percent favored Rep. Bobby Scott, a longtime Democratic member of Congress who represents a Hampton Roads area district; 10 percent favored Rep. Gerry Connolly, a Democrat whose district is centered in Fairfax County; and 10 percent favored Attorney General Mark Herring, also a Democrat. Eight percent favored Rep. Don Beyer, also a Democrat whose district centers on Arlington and Alexandria; and 11 percent said they favored none of the four options offered in the survey.
“Virginians appear ready to give Gov. McAuliffe lots of latitude to pick Virginia’s next senator if Kaine becomes vice president – as long as he doesn’t pick himself,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at UMW and director of the University Center for Leadership and Media Studies, which sponsored the survey.
If Kaine’s seat becomes vacant, McAuliffe is empowered to appoint someone to serve in the U.S. Senate until a special election takes place in November 2017. That special election next year – the first chance Republicans would have to compete for the seat — would be for the single year remaining on Kaine’s original six-year term. The victor in the 2017 special election would be eligible to run for a six-year term in November 2018.
Even though Virginians are cool to a Senate self-appointment, McAuliffe enjoys high approval ratings from his constituents. In the UMW survey, 53 percent of Virginians approved of his job performance, and only 35 percent disapproved. The governor’s current level of support is higher than the 43 percent approval rating McAuliffe received in a November 2015 UMW survey.
McAuliffe is about as popular in Virginia as is President Obama, who received a 50 percent approval rating in the September 2016 UMW survey.
McAuliffe’s rating is higher than that of Sen. Kaine, who had a 42 percent favorable and 28 percent unfavorable rating in the survey, and of Sen. Mark Warner, who had a 39 percent favorable and 17 percent unfavorable rating.
Turning to issues, respondents continue to show strong support for expanding health care for low-income residents, specifically the Medicaid expansion plan that has been a key McAuliffe policy goal. By a margin of 68 percent to 26 percent, Virginians surveyed favored Medicaid expansion, compared to the 65 percent who backed the measure in the UMW November 2015 survey and the 64 percent who supported the measure in UMW’s October 2014 survey.
The Medicaid expansion proposal has been repeatedly rejected by the Virginia House of Delegates, where the Republican majority has expressed concern that the federal government will try to offload to state government the expenses of additional government health care once the program is running.
The UMW survey of 1,006 Virginia adults included 397 landline interviews and 609 cell phone interviews. The margins of error are ±3.6 percentage points for results based on full sample, ±3.9 percentage points for results based on registered voters [N=852], and ±4.4 percentage points for results based on likely voters [N=685].
For the full survey, see the Topline.
For further information, contact Stephen J. Farnsworth sfarnswo@umw.edu or 703-380-3025.
