Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D), the two leading declared candidates for governor next year, are tied at 39 percent support each, according to a new statewide survey from the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.
The remaining respondents in the survey of 1,000 adult Virginians said they were undecided, did not plan to vote or would back another candidate. The poll was conducted by Research America Inc. Sept. 3-9.
Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), another possible candidate for his party’s gubernatorial nomination, would be equally competitive in a general election, according to the poll. In a possible match-up between Spanberger and Miyares, 40 percent of survey respondents backed Spanberger and 39 percent backed Miyares, well within the survey’s margin of error.
Miyares has not yet announced his intentions for 2025, but Virginia attorney generals often either run for re-election to the commonwealth’s top legal office or campaign to become governor. Republican Glenn Youngkin, the current governor, cannot run for re-election next year because of Virginia’s one consecutive term limit for governors.
“Virginia elections are often close, and the look ahead to next year suggests more of the same in the campaign for governor,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “The big challenge for these potential candidates is becoming better known across the commonwealth.”
Virginians were more negative about the direction of the nation than about the direction of the commonwealth, with 24 percent saying Virginia was headed in the right direction and 26 percent saying it was headed in the wrong direction. The rest offered mixed views. For the nation overall, 51 percent of those surveyed said that things in the country were headed in the wrong direction, with only 16 percent saying the nation was on the right track.
Virginians in this new survey said they approved of Gov. Youngkin’s job performance by a 46 percent to 34 percent margin. As for President Biden’s job performance, 37 percent of survey respondents approved and 53 percent disapproved.
“Elections never stop in Virginia, and 2025 looks to be another very interesting electoral year in the commonwealth,” Farnsworth said.
The very close contests for governor next year mirror the battle for Virginia’s 13 Electoral College Votes this fall. Vice President Kamala Harris (D) had the support of 47 percent of likely voters in this survey from UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, and former President Donald Trump (R) was favored by 46 percent.
Four years ago, former Vice President Biden defeated Trump by a 10-point margin in Virginia. A year later, Farnsworth said, Republican Glenn Youngkin was elected governor by a 51 percent to 49 percent margin.
For further information, contact Professor Farnsworth at sfarnswo@umw.edu.
For more survey results, see Topline and All Survey Results.
SURVEY INFORMATION
The University of Mary Washington’s Virginia Survey Fall 2024 was conducted by Research America Inc. between September 3 and September 9, 2024. The survey included a total of 1,000 Virginia residents (unweighted), consisting of 870 registered voters and 774 likely voters. The data collection was carried out through a mixed-mode approach: 600 respondents were contacted by phone (80% cell phones and 20% landlines), and 400 respondents were contacted via online panel. Interviews were conducted in English, and the final dataset was weighted to correct for known demographic discrepancies, including age, gender, and race/ethnicity, ensuring that the results are representative of the Virginia population. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.1%, while the margin of error for likely voters is +/- 4.1%.
